SBP Maintains Policy Rate At 7%, FY20

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee has kept the policy rate unchanged at 7 percent for the next two months.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to maintain the policy rate at 7%, Governor announced on Thursday, adding that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has forecast the inflation to remain in the 7-9% range.

Addressing a press conference here in Karachi after the MPC’s meeting, Dr. Reza Baqir said the decision was taken keeping in mind the current situation.

Governor State Bank of Pakistan Dr. Reza Baqir said that the MPC looked into the yearly inflation rate is projected to remain at 7-9% as previously announced. There could be some changes in the projection due to changes in electricity rates, and international oil prices but it will be temporary so MPC decided not to adjust the interest rates, said Baqir.4

Pakistan’s situation ‘better today’

The State Bank Pakistan’s top official said the reason behind inflation was not high demand. Things are getting better than before, he explained. The economy is improving day by day. Pakistan’s monetary policy supports it.

The MPC was of the view that there is no pressure on inflation from the demand side, as our capacities are not fully utilized, and the inflation forecast is stable. The MPC has the view that the situation has improved since last year as the COVID-19 pandemic caused a lot of hardships. however, we have yet to see the expected improvement.

It is essential that today the monetary policy should convey a message of stability, the SBP Chief said.

Baqir said that to improve the Current Account, the SBP decided to free float the exchange rate back in May-June 2019. We were told that free-floating the exchange rate will skyrocket dollar rates, but what happened that this measure stabilizes Pakistani rupee, he said.

Baqir said the country’s economy and the flexible exchange rate introduced by the central managed to cope well with the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to other emerging economies.

The improvement is still not the kind that we would like to see for our nation," he said.

The MPC has also given a direction to the future and the SBP has guided the future as well this time.

“Our situation is better today. It’s not what it was at the time of the IMF (International Monetary Fund program)” or in June 2019", Baqir underlined.

Rupee depreciated 3.8%

The SBP governor mentioned that the Pakistani rupee strengthened when the US dollar was linked to the market rate. The exchange rate system was adapted to the market to improve the current account, he added, noting that the change was made in May-June 2019.

We were asked if the dollar would skyrocket if left open free as per the market system but the Pakistani currency strengthened against it. Moreover, making it market-based made our currency stronger than other countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“During the coronavirus (pandemic), the Pakistani rupee fell 3.8% as opposed to those of other developing countries. Brazil’s currency fell 21%,” he explained.

Inflation

On the inflation front, recent out-turns are also encouraging, suggesting a waning of supply-side price pressures from food and still-benign core inflation. While utility tariff increases may cause an uptick in inflation, this is likely to be transient given excess capacity in the economy and well-anchored inflation expectations.

As a result, inflation is still expected to fall within the previously announced range of 7-9 percent for FY21 and trend toward the 5-7 percent target range over the medium-term.

With the inflation outlook relatively benign aside from the possibility of temporary supply-side shocks, the MPC felt that the existing accommodative stance of monetary policy remained appropriate to support the nascent recovery while keeping inflation expectations well-anchored and maintaining financial stability.

GDP growth in FY20

June 2020, the committee has kept the policy rate unchanged at 7 percent to support the economy, which was badly hurt due to Covid-19 pandemic and recorded negative 0.4 percent GDP growth in FY20.

The MPC however stressed that considerable uncertainty remains around the outlook. In a statement it said that the trajectory of the Covid pandemic is difficult to predict, given still-elevated global cases, the emergence of new strains, and lingering uncertainties about the roll-out of vaccines worldwide. Such external shocks could slow the recovery.

In light of such Covid-related uncertainties, the MPC considered it appropriate to provide some forward guidance on monetary policy to facilitate policy predictability and decision-making by economic agents. In the absence of unforeseen developments, the MPC expects monetary policy settings to remain unchanged in the near term.

As the recovery becomes more durable and the economy returns to full capacity, the MPC expects any adjustments in the policy rate to be measured and gradual to achieve mildly positive real interest rates.

In reaching its decision, the MPC considered key trends and prospects in the real, external and fiscal sectors, and the resulting outlook for monetary conditions and inflation.

Real sector

The economic recovery underway since July has strengthened in recent months. Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) grew by 7.4 percent (y/y) in October and 14.5 percent (y/y) in November.

The manufacturing recovery is also becoming more broad-based, with 12 out of 15 subsectors registering positive growth in November and employment beginning to recover. So far, this fiscal year, LSM has grown by 7.4 percent (y/y), against a contraction of 5.3 percent during the same period last year.

Nevertheless, the level of manufacturing activity generally remained below average levels in FY19, pointing to continued spare capacity in the economy.

On the demand side, cement sales remain strong on the back of rising construction activity, POL sales are at two-year highs, and automobile sales are also rising in both urban (motorcars) and rural (tractors) markets. In agriculture, cotton output is likely to decline more than expected based on latest production estimates.

However, this is likely to be offset by improved growth in other major crops and higher wheat production due to the rise in support prices along with announced subsidies on fertilizers and pesticides for Rabi crops. While social distancing is still affecting some service sectors, wholesale, retail trade and transportation are expected to benefit from improvements in construction and manufacturing activity.

External sector

Following five consecutive months of surpluses, the current account registered a deficit of $662 million in December. While remittances and exports continued to grow steadily, the trade deficit rose due to a rise in imports of machinery and industrial raw material, in line with the pick-up in economic activity. At the same time, wheat and sugar imports also rose to close demand and supply gaps in the domestic market.

Nevertheless, the current account remained in surplus during the first half of FY21, at $1.1 billion compared to a deficit of over $2 billion during the same period last year. This improvement has been mainly driven by workers’ remittances, which have remained above $2 billion every month during the current fiscal year due in part to travel restrictions and supportive policy measures taken by the government and SBP that have increased the use of formal channels. Further, the pick-up in workers proceeding abroad in December bodes well for future prospects.

Encouragingly, exports have also recovered to their pre-COVID monthly level of around $2 billion since September, with a broad-based recovery in export volumes recorded in almost all categories in December.

Persistent improvement in the current account position and improving sentiment led to a mild appreciation in the PKR since the last MPC meeting and further strengthened external buffers. SBP’s foreign exchange reserves have risen to $13 billion, their highest level since December 2017.

Based upon the data available so far, the outlook for the external sector has improved further and the current account deficit for FY21 is now projected to remain below 1 percent of GDP.

Fiscal sector

As per the MPC, fiscal developments have been largely in line with this year’s budget and the government has continued to adhere to its commitment of no fresh borrowing from the SBP. Despite higher interest payments and Covid-related spending, healthy growth in revenues has contained the fiscal deficit during the fiscal year so far.

Provisional estimates suggest that net FBR revenue grew by 3.0 and 8.3 percent (y/y) in November and December, respectively. Driven by a rebound in direct taxes and the sales tax, FBR revenue during H1-FY21 has grown by 5 percent (y/y) to come in close to the targeted level. Despite higher non-interest current expenditures, the primary balance posted a surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP during July-November, 0.2 percentage points better than the same period last year. Economic Situation better than before

Talking about the newly introduced forward guidance section introduced in the MPC statement, SBP Governor said that it was something done as there were some concerns among investors and the business community.

In his message, the Governor SBP said that Pakistan’s current economic situation is much better than when the country started its IMF program in June 2019. “We are confident to give forward guidance similar to other central banks,” he said.

Monetary and inflation outlook

The MPC noted that financial conditions remain appropriately accommodative at this early stage of the recovery, with the real policy rate in slightly negative territory on a forward-looking basis. Private sector credit has seen an encouraging uptick since the last MPC meeting, driven by a continued rise in consumer and fixed investment loans on the back of SBP’s refinance facilities.

As demand recovers and inventories fall in some sectors, working capital loans have also picked up for the first time since the onset of the Covid pandemic, although their level remains lower than last year.

Inflation pressures have eased since the last MPC, despite an upward adjustment in fuel prices. After remaining close to 9 percent in the preceding two months, headline inflation fell to 8.3 percent in November and further to 8 percent in December, the lowest rate since June 2019.

This decline is mainly attributable to easing food inflation. Owing to conducive weather and various measures taken by the government to address supply-side issues, the price of perishables, wheat, pulses and rice has declined. Moreover, core inflation has continued to remain relatively soft since the beginning of FY21, in line with the presence of spare capacity in the economy. Inflation expectations of both businesses and consumers remain well-anchored and have declined in recent months. As a result, at this stage of the recovery, any further supply-side shocks from food or utility tariffs are unlikely to have a lasting inflationary impact through second-round effects.

Earlier, most of economists and analysts optimistic about the inflation outlook expected that the committee will keep the policy rate unchanged at 7 percent for next two months to support the economic recovery. “We expect interest rate to remain stable at current level as inflation is likely to move towards lower side in January,” they added.

Key points from MPC’s statement

  • “Domestic recovery has gained some further traction”
  • “Utility tariff increases may cause an uptick in inflation [but] this is likely to be transient”
  • Inflation expected to “trend toward the 5-7 percent target range over the medium-term”
  • With regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, external shocks such as the “still-elevated global cases, the emergence of new strains, and lingering uncertainties about the roll-out of vaccines” around the world “could slow the recovery”
  • “Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) grew by 7.4 percent (y/y) in October and 14.5 percent (y/y) in November” [but] “the level of manufacturing activity generally remained below average levels in FY19, pointing to continued spare capacity in the economy”
  • “Cotton output is likely to decline more than expected based on latest production estimates [but] likely to be offset by improved growth in other major crops and higher wheat production”
  • “While social distancing is still affecting some service sectors, wholesale, retail trade and transportation are expected to benefit from improvements in construction and manufacturing activity”
  • “Following five consecutive months of surpluses, the current account registered a deficit of $662 million in December” and “trade deficit rose due to a rise in imports of machinery and industrial raw material”
  • “Exports have also recovered to their pre-COVID monthly level of around $2 billion since September”
  • “SBP’s foreign exchange reserves have risen to $13 billion, their highest level since December 2017”
  • “Provisional estimates suggest that net FBR revenue grew by 3.0 and 8.3 percent (y/y) in November and December, respectively”
  • “Working capital loans have also picked up for the first time since the onset of the Covid pandemic, although their level remains lower than last year”
  • “The price of perishables, wheat, pulses and rice has declined due to conducive weather and various measures taken by the government to address supply-side issues”